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Election Commentary

Recent history tells us that a clear and decisive path with a unified country behind strong leadership very rarely happens.

There were all sorts of potential results and a hung parliament is one of the scenarios which the country really doesn’t need at the moment.

This election result is a very poor result for UK asset markets.

So what do we predict and what does this mean for our investment portfolios?

  • Our portfolios are well positioned for this outcome as our bias has been and continues to be towards global rather than UK equities.
  • Any weakening of sterling helps our portfolios both because of our exposure to overseas equities and as the majority of our fixed interest holdings are non-sterling.

and what is likely to happen from here on in?

It looks like a wounded Theresa May will, in the short term, form a minority Government which will rely upon the support of other parties to get their laws passed.

Next, the Conservatives and Labour will most probably seek the allegiance of the DUP who will be able to name their own price for co-operation.

This period of uncertainty could have all sorts of outcomes varying from a Conservative leadership contest, another General Election (maybe October) with the prospect of a Labour Government and through to another EU referendum.

What real dangers do we see?

We will be keeping a very firm eye on what’s happening but there are three issues which will get most of our attention.

  1. Watch out for the potential for Theresa May resigning and the implications as they unfold.
  2. What are the implications for Brexit with a continuing Government without a majority?
  3. What happens if the outcome is a new EU referendum?

As always, if any of you have questions, your Lorica adviser is on hand to help.

Further reading